current situation in the stock markets in the world can be generally called as ambiguous and heterogeneous. Hey, the markets stayed below the recent peak of their medium-term (previous summits in Europe were in January., In Asia in October / November ur.), While the part after being beaten lightly corrected.
addition irresistibly suggests the idea that the current wave of rising, which began as the stock markets and raw materials around May / June of this year, a very large extent is correlated with weakening the U.S. dollar and the continuing weakness of the dollar along with high global commodity quotations. It can be assumed that increases in the stock markets and raw materials are out of character to a large extent the inflation (due to the fact that raw materials valued in U.S. dollars, part of their growth can be described as a defense of their "real" value of the environment on the value of the determinant of losing their money, ie the dollar).
must consider two problems: first, what is the nearest dollar and the prospect of whether the current correlation between dollar weakness and a positive sentiment in the equity markets and raw materials is a permanent feature. Recent significant peaks "weakness" of the U.S. dollar against the euro, the 2009 can be found at around 1.5 euro / dollar, or about 2% above the current value. It seems that it will be strong enough level of resistance to U.S. dollars for a long time, he could not deal with him, giving a relatively small short term potential for a weakening of the dollar against the euro. In addition, a partial answer to put a second problem, already we have, with varying relative strength of individual commodity markets. Some despite successive records "weaknesses" of the dollar have not reached their peaks in February / March this year (eg copper, nickel, zinc). Ironically, what may be a cause for concern for supporters of stronger growth in the equity markets, a very strong bull market is currently experiencing the typical raw materials as stores for times of slump, a gold and silver. Relatively less behaves copper which is a barometer of expected future prosperity.
However, it appears that a significant positive impact on the current short-term boom in stock markets and commodity support program has also liquidity of U.S. banks (the Fed buying up bonds from the market at a cost of $ 75 billion per month), which will last until the end of June 2011.
Against the positive sentiment in the markets could include the three largest economies of the world described by me in the article "The three threats that may strongly influence the economic slowdown in the world." It's about: too much debt and the possibility of restrictive U.S. approach to this matter by the Global credit rating agencies. The ongoing cycle of fiscal policy in China, as the result of, inter alia, the pulse inflation that is currently taking place and the possibility of introducing a similar bias in a substantial part of global economies. And finally, a very difficult situation caused by Japan's earthquake and tsunami. However, it appears that the effects described above, the phenomena to be expected in longer than adopted in this blog about two-month period. All interested in the subject, I refer to that article on Artykulyc.com.pl, or http://prynki.blogspot.com.
As is apparent from the above considerations, the arguments are backed by the ongoing positive economic stock markets and raw materials, are also symptoms that may indicate that part of market participants prepared for worse times (gold and silver markets.) And approaching perhaps the black clouds over the global economy and thus the markets analyzed.
Summing up and taking all the above arguments into account and assuming that it does not happen in the near future for the revolution and unpredictable world events, it appears that the markets are waiting stabilizing at high levels, with the possibility (depending on the phase of the market and its relative force) to attack new local peaks. But with the approach of the end of the Fed buying bonds from the market, you can expect more nervous movements in the markets.
http://www.artykuly.com.pl/
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